By JOHN BUSSEY
Expect many of the big headlines in world affairs in 2010 to be written by Washington — sometimes to the chagrin of other nations, and some Americans, too.
Barack Obama may at times be among the latter. The president has a big domestic agenda still to tend and faces Congressional elections in November. Troubling distractions from abroad can be just that — distractions.
Nonetheless, Mr. Obama, like George W. Bush before him, may find himself subsumed in important events overseas this year. Here’s a list of some of the bigger ones to watch for:
Terror
The Christmas Day attack on a Northwest Airlines flight will be remembered as coming staggeringly close to success — thwarted only by the failure of the chemicals smuggled on board to explode. The alleged terrorist, a Nigerian with a U.S. visa, overcame European and U.S. intelligence and security and nearly killed all aboard.
Efforts to track and overcome that threat are already gathering new energy, and public opinion is likely to fuel the moves. Nations will set new security at airports, tighten no-fly lists, and focus on new sources of extremist activity, such as Yemen and Somalia. Recent new evidence of homegrown extremism in Western nations, especially the U.S., is likely to fire this resolve.
A U.S. Marine takes up a fighting position during the start of a July operation to take areas in Afghanistan’s southern Helmand Province used by Taliban fighters as a supply route.
Afghanistan
The U.S. and its allies are under pressure to show results in the eight-year conflict. The U.S. is putting more than 30,000 additional troops into the theater this year, pushing its total contingent to about 100,000. Several allies — the U.K., Poland, France and South Korea, among others — have also said they will increase their commitments.
The full-throated debate over whether this is the right strategy will continue. Would the better option be to employ a much smaller fighting force focused just on uprooting al Qaeda and its sympathizers?
Not too far away, the U.S. is drawing down its troop levels in Iraq. War-weary electorates in the U.S. and many other nations are wondering why the same isn’t the case in Afghanistan.
Iranian protesters demonstrate against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime in late December.
So much for diplomacy — Iran has continued its nuclear-development program, despite entreaties from much of the international community. The U.S. and Europe have threatened sanctions, and the deadlines have passed. Now what? What does an effective sanctions program look like? Will enough nations support it? Wouldn’t Iran’s porous borders thwart it? And is there enough enforcement capability globally, or even in the U.S., to keep companies from doing business with the country?
The U.S. may wait to see if Iran’s own internal unrest — a dissident movement that has found its voice — changes Iran’s political dynamic, and America’s choices.
Watching just as closely: Israel, which not long ago flew practice bombing missions out over the Mediterranean, about the same distance as it is from Israel to Iran’s nuclear sites.
Sovereign Debt
Economies are growing again, which is good news, but the financial crisis that rocked the world is far from over.
A stiff shot of adrenaline to the heart kept the global economy pumping, but now all the bills for that stimulus and those bailouts are coming due. And the budget books — from Asia to Europe to the U.S. — aren’t looking good. Deficits are soaring. Banks are still ailing. Unemployment is still high. And all this is on top of huge national debt that many nations amassed during the robust times.
Japan, Eastern Europe, the U.S. dollar — even as things get better, there’s still plenty of opportunity for painful surprises.
China
An employee counts yuan banknotes at a branch of the Bank of China.
China’s growth has given it new heft internationally, and the country seems ever more willing to flex its vocal chords, especially when blaming the U.S. for the last two years of global economic tumult. This year may bring some new tests to the relationship.
China is still a bicycle economy, pedaling hard to generate enough jobs for the crowds of rural migrants who each year seek a better life in the cities. The ruling politburo fears unrest, and few things stir unrest more than unemployment. A big chunk of China’s economic success depends on clear channels of trade with the U.S., and now trade spats are on the rise. Tires, steel — the list is growing.
If unemployment in the U.S. remains high, and growth sluggish, watch nascent protectionism in Congress pick up steam. So far, the Obama administration has backed away from declaring China a currency manipulator, even though the country all but pegs its yuan to the dollar. But 2010 is an election year, with hot contests in many manufacturing states. The language, and the trade policy, could change.
Global Regulation
The last two years of economic crisis, brought on in part by a familiar episode of Banks Gone Wild, fueled new urgency among the G-20 nations to rethink how the world does business — or at least how financial institutions get regulated.
Everything from executive pay to proprietary trading to how banks manage risk is on the table for review. So far, there’s been more talk than action. But that’s not for lack of interest. The U.S. Congress is busy on its financial regulatory revamp. Expect 2010 to bring more regulation globally — for better or worse.
